Tigers at Red Sox
Last play · Riley Greene strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
DET 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -170
Red Sox favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Dominic Smith scores. Vaughn Grissom scores. (inning 4) — +29% Red Sox
8Colt Keith homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Matt Vierling scores.3–7
6Ceddanne Rafaela homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. David Hamilton scores.1–7
5Rob Refsnyder doubles (8) on a fly ball to left fielder Akil Baddoo. Connor Wong scores.1–5
4Ceddanne Rafaela homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Dominic Smith scores. Vaughn Grissom scores.1–4
4Dominic Smith doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Akil Baddoo. Rafael Devers scores.1–1
1Tigers challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Gio Urshela singles on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Riley Greene scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
