Braves at Red Sox
Last play · Zack Short flies out to right fielder Tyler O'Neill.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
ATL 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 6 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Red Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers homers (12) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — +15% Red Sox
8Jarren Duran homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.0–9
7Rafael Devers homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. Rob Refsnyder scores.0–8
5Dominic Smith doubles (5) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Adam Duvall. Rafael Devers scores. Tyler O'Neill to 3rd.0–6
5Tyler O'Neill singles on a line drive to left fielder Jarred Kelenic. Enmanuel Valdez scores. Rafael Devers to 2nd.0–5
5Enmanuel Valdez doubles (6) on a fly ball to right fielder Adam Duvall. Jarren Duran scores.0–4
2Reese McGuire out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jarred Kelenic. Dominic Smith scores.0–3
2David Hamilton doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Tyler O'Neill scores. Dominic Smith to 3rd.0–2
2Rafael Devers homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














