Braves at Red Sox
Last play · Dominic Smith grounds into a double play, second baseman Ozzie Albies to shortstop Orlando Arcia to first baseman Matt Olson. Enmanuel Valdez out at 2nd. Dominic Smith out at 1st.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
ATL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 3 BOS
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-170 / +140
Red Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ozzie Albies homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Riley scores. Marcell Ozuna scores. (inning 6) — -38% Braves
9Michael Harris II singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jarren Duran. Zack Short scores. Orlando Arcia to 3rd.8–3
7Orlando Arcia homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.7–3
6Ozzie Albies homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Riley scores. Marcell Ozuna scores.6–3
5Sean Murphy singles on a ground ball to left fielder Rob Refsnyder, deflected by second baseman Jamie Westbrook. Jarred Kelenic scores.3–3
4Bobby Dalbec singles on a line drive to right fielder Adam Duvall. Connor Wong scores. Rafael Devers scores. Jamie Westbrook to 3rd.2–3
3Dominic Smith homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
2Adam Duvall reaches on a missed catch error by first baseman Dominic Smith, assist to second baseman Jamie Westbrook. Matt Olson scores. Ozzie Albies scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














