Padres at Red Sox
Last play · Enmanuel Valdez pops out to catcher Brett Sullivan in foul territory.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
SD 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 10 – 0 BOS
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -140
Red Sox favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 3) — -21% Padres
8Jackson Merrill doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Jake Cronenworth scores. David Peralta to 3rd.11–1
6Jarren Duran homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.10–1
5Brett Sullivan homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Ha-Seong Kim scores.10–0
5Manny Machado homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Jurickson Profar scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.8–0
5Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Luis Arraez scores. Jurickson Profar to 2nd.5–0
4Jackson Merrill homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
3Manny Machado homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores.3–0
2Ha-Seong Kim singles on a line drive to center fielder Jarren Duran. Donovan Solano scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd. Fielding error by center fielder Jarren Duran.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














