Royals at Red Sox
Last play · Nick Loftin grounds out, second baseman David Hamilton to first baseman Dominic Smith.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
KC 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Red Sox favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rafael Devers homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Jarren Duran scores. (inning 1) — +22% Red Sox
9Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Dairon Blanco scores. Garrett Hampson out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela to third baseman Rafael Devers. Freddy Fermin to 2nd.4–5
7Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Rafael Devers scores.3–5
6Salvador Perez homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
4MJ Melendez grounds into a force out, second baseman David Hamilton to shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela. Salvador Perez scores. Hunter Renfroe out at 2nd. MJ Melendez to 1st.2–4
2Dominic Smith homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Wilyer Abreu scores.1–4
1Rafael Devers homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Jarren Duran scores.1–2
1Adam Frazier homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














