Royals at Red Sox
Last play · MJ Melendez grounds out, first baseman Dominic Smith to pitcher Zack Kelly.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
KC 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 5 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Red Sox favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Wilyer Abreu hits a ground-rule double (19) on a fly ball to right field. Masataka Yoshida scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. (inning 3) — +12% Red Sox
5Rafael Devers homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field.0–5
3Dominic Smith singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Rafael Devers scores. Wilyer Abreu scores.0–4
3Wilyer Abreu hits a ground-rule double (19) on a fly ball to right field. Masataka Yoshida scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd.0–2
2Reese McGuire doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Dominic Smith scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














