Astros at Red Sox
Last play · Connor Wong grounds into a force out, third baseman Alex Bregman to second baseman Jose Altuve. Rafael Devers out at 2nd.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
HOU 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Red Sox favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Altuve homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 7) — -36% Astros
9Rafael Devers reaches on a fielder's choice out, third baseman Alex Bregman unassisted. Jarren Duran scores. Rob Refsnyder out at 3rd.8–4
9Yainer Diaz homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Chas McCormick scores.8–3
9Yordan Alvarez doubles (27) on a line drive to right fielder Rob Refsnyder. Alex Bregman scores.6–3
7Jeremy Peña singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Yordan Alvarez scores. Yainer Diaz to 3rd. Jon Singleton to 2nd.5–3
7Jon Singleton singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.4–3
7Jose Altuve homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Meyers scores.3–3
4Jarren Duran strikes out on a foul tip.1–3
2David Hamilton doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Nick Sogard scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
