Padres at Cubs
Last play · Michael Busch homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SD 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 1 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -170
Cubs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jurickson Profar homers (6) on a line drive to center field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 8) — -52% Padres
9Michael Busch homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
8Christopher Morel out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Mike Tauchman scores.2–2
8Jurickson Profar homers (6) on a line drive to center field. Luis Arraez scores.2–1
4Cody Bellinger homers (6) on a line drive to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








