Pirates at Cubs
Last play · Mike Tauchman pops out to shortstop Oneil Cruz.
Win probability
Cubs0%
PIT 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 3 CHC
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edward Olivares homers (5) on a line drive to left center field. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 1) — -22% Pirates
8Christopher Morel out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jack Suwinski. Seiya Suzuki scores.5–4
6Yasmani Grandal reaches on a fielding error by right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Edward Olivares scores. Yasmani Grandal to 2nd.5–3
5Cody Bellinger doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Edward Olivares. Mike Tauchman scores. Cody Bellinger to 3rd.4–3
5Bryan Reynolds doubles (12) on a ground ball to left fielder Ian Happ, deflected by third baseman Christopher Morel. Michael A. Taylor scores.4–2
4Nick Madrigal singles on a ground ball to right fielder Edward Olivares. Michael Busch scores. Nick Madrigal to 2nd.3–2
4Nick Gonzales homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.3–1
2Ian Happ homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
1Edward Olivares homers (5) on a line drive to left center field. Oneil Cruz scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
