Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Nolan Gorman called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 2 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Tauchman scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 7) — +18% Cubs
7Ian Happ homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Tauchman scores. Cody Bellinger scores.1–5
4Dansby Swanson grounds out, catcher Pedro Pagés to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Seiya Suzuki scores. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.1–2
4Nico Hoerner reaches on a fielding error by pitcher Chris Roycroft. Cody Bellinger scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.1–1
4Nolan Arenado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Alec Burleson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














