Mets at Cubs
Last play · Jeff McNeil strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Cubs100%
NYM 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 10.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Cubs favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ grounds out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to first baseman Pete Alonso. Cody Bellinger scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. (inning 1) — +9% Cubs
6Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to first baseman Pete Alonso. Tomás Nido scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Cody Bellinger to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Pete Alonso.1–8
6Tomás Nido doubles (3) on a fly ball to right fielder DJ Stewart. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–7
5Francisco Alvarez homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.1–6
3Christopher Morel homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.0–6
1Pete Crow-Armstrong triples (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Starling Marte. Dansby Swanson scores.0–5
1Dansby Swanson doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder DJ Stewart. Christopher Morel scores.0–4
1Christopher Morel singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brandon Nimmo. Seiya Suzuki scores.0–3
1Ian Happ grounds out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to first baseman Pete Alonso. Cody Bellinger scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














