D-backs at Cubs
Last play · Nico Hoerner flies out to right fielder Corbin Carroll.
Win probability
Cubs0%
AZ 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 3 – 0 CHC
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Cubs favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Corbin Carroll homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores. (inning 5) — -20% D-backs
5Corbin Carroll homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Geraldo Perdomo scores.3–0
5Alek Thomas homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














