Twins at Cubs
Last play · Nico Hoerner grounds out, first baseman Carlos Santana to pitcher Griffin Jax.
Win probability
Cubs0%
MIN 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 0 CHC
Twins led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Cubs favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manuel Margot homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — -17% Twins
9Ryan Jeffers grounds into a double play, shortstop Dansby Swanson to second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Matt Wallner scores. Max Kepler out at 2nd. Ryan Jeffers out at 1st.3–0
5Manuel Margot homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
3Royce Lewis out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Willi Castro scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
