Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Nico Hoerner lines out to center fielder Lars Nootbaar.
Win probability
Cubs0%
STL 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Arenado singles on a fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Willson Contreras scores. Brendan Donovan scores. (inning 8) — -34% Cardinals
9Lars Nootbaar out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Tommy Pham scores.5–4
8Nolan Arenado singles on a fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Willson Contreras scores. Brendan Donovan scores.4–4
8Brendan Donovan singles on a ground ball to third baseman Isaac Paredes. Alec Burleson scores. Willson Contreras to 3rd. Brendan Donovan to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Isaac Paredes.2–4
2Miguel Amaya out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Kyle Gibson to second baseman Nolan Gorman. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–4
2Pete Crow-Armstrong triples (5) on a line drive to right fielder Tommy Pham. Nico Hoerner scores.1–3
1Michael Busch homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. Ian Happ scores.1–2
1Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was overturned: Alec Burleson homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
