Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Brendan Donovan pops out to shortstop Dansby Swanson.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Lars Nootbaar scores. (inning 3) — -26% Cardinals
6Miguel Amaya homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.2–6
6Mike Tauchman homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.2–5
5Cody Bellinger out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Lars Nootbaar. Nico Hoerner scores.2–4
5Michael Busch singles on a line drive to right fielder Tommy Pham. Miguel Amaya scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd.2–3
4Pete Crow-Armstrong pops out to shortstop Masyn Winn.2–2
4Dansby Swanson grounds out, shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Isaac Paredes scores. Mike Tauchman to 3rd.2–1
3Masyn Winn homers (9) on a fly ball to center field. Lars Nootbaar scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
