Twins at Cubs
Last play · Willi Castro grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIN 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 6 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Cubs favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Carlos Santana scores. Max Kepler to 3rd. (inning 2) — -15% Twins
8Christian Bethancourt doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Dansby Swanson scores.2–8
8Dansby Swanson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Mike Tauchman scores.2–7
4Ian Happ homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. Christian Bethancourt scores.2–6
3Mike Tauchman walks.2–4
3Isaac Paredes out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Max Kepler. Ian Happ scores. Michael Busch to 3rd.2–3
3Seiya Suzuki walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Ian Happ to 3rd. Michael Busch to 2nd.2–2
2Brooks Lee grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch. Carlos Santana scores. Max Kepler to 3rd.2–1
1Michael Busch homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
