Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Nolan Arenado pops out to first baseman Jeimer Candelario in foul territory.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -155
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeimer Candelario homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 1) — +14% Reds
2Jacob Hurtubise reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Jonathan India scores. Jacob Hurtubise to 2nd.1–3
2Will Benson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alec Burleson. Nick Martini scores. Jonathan India to 3rd.1–2
1Jeimer Candelario homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Paul Goldschmidt homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
