Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Elly De La Cruz grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Masyn Winn. TJ Friedl out at 2nd.
Win probability
Reds0%
STL 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 0 CIN
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Carpenter homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — -18% Cardinals
9Tyler Stephenson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Dylan Carlson. Nick Martini scores. Jonathan India to 3rd.5–3
9Alec Burleson walks. Michael Siani scores. Brendan Donovan to 3rd. Paul Goldschmidt to 2nd.5–2
8Jeimer Candelario doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Carlson. Elly De La Cruz scores. Throwing error by right fielder Dylan Carlson.4–2
8Nolan Gorman homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
7Jonathan India singles on a line drive to center fielder Michael Siani. Nick Martini scores.3–1
4Masyn Winn singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Nolan Gorman scores. Matt Carpenter to 3rd.3–0
4Nolan Gorman doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Paul Goldschmidt scores.2–0
3Matt Carpenter homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
