Red Sox at Reds
Last play · Dominic Smith grounds out, second baseman Jonathan India to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Reds100%
BOS 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 3 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Reds favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeimer Candelario homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 3) — +15% Reds
7TJ Friedl singles on a bunt ground ball to pitcher Cam Booser. Santiago Espinal scores. Luke Maile scores. Throwing error by pitcher Cam Booser.2–5
3Jeimer Candelario homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.2–3
3Jarren Duran homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
2Jonathan India homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
2Connor Wong homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.1–1
1Jeimer Candelario homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














