Royals at Guardians
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
KC 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 5 – 3 CLE
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Freeman homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Will Brennan scores. (inning 7) — +39% Guardians
7David Fry reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez scores. Josh Naylor scores. David Fry to 2nd.5–8
7Tyler Freeman homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Will Brennan scores.5–5
4Josh Naylor homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. José Ramírez scores.5–3
4José Ramírez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Adam Frazier. Steven Kwan scores.5–1
4Bobby Witt Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Maikel Garcia scores.5–0
3Bobby Witt Jr. homers (10) on a fly ball to center field. Maikel Garcia scores.3–0
3Hunter Renfroe homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














