Pirates at Guardians
Last play · Josh Naylor pops out to second baseman Nick Gonzales in foul territory.
Win probability
Guardians0%
PIT 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 0 CLE
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
Guardians favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rowdy Tellez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jhonkensy Noel. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. (inning 8) — -21% Pirates
8Rowdy Tellez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jhonkensy Noel. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd.3–0
4Andrew McCutchen singles on a fly ball to right fielder Will Brennan. Nick Gonzales scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
