Mariners at Astros
Last play · Luis Urías strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
SEA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 1 HOU
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -140
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Mitch Haniger. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers to 3rd. (inning 7) — +39% Astros
7Alex Bregman walks. Jose Altuve scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.3–5
7Jose Altuve singles on a soft bunt ground ball to third baseman Josh Rojas. Jake Meyers scores.3–4
7Mauricio Dubón out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Mitch Haniger. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers to 3rd.3–3
5Dylan Moore homers (2) on a line drive to left center field. Luke Raley scores.3–1
4Jeremy Peña grounds out, second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Ty France. Yordan Alvarez scores. Alex Bregman to 2nd.1–1
3Jorge Polanco homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.








