Brewers at Astros
Last play · Victor Caratini called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros0%
MIL 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 4 – 2 HOU
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -175
Astros favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · William Contreras homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Frelick scores. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 5) — -36% Brewers
5Jake Meyers homers (5) on a line drive to left field.4–2
5William Contreras homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Sal Frelick scores. Jackson Chourio scores.4–1
5Blake Perkins out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Joey Ortiz scores.1–1
3Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to center fielder Blake Perkins. Jake Meyers scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
