Twins at Astros
Last play · Mauricio Dubón strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
MIN 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 1 HOU
Twins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Larnach homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Willi Castro scores. (inning 5) — -20% Twins
8Carlos Santana homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.6–1
6Manuel Margot grounds out, shortstop Mauricio Dubón to first baseman Jon Singleton. Max Kepler scores.5–1
5Trevor Larnach homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Willi Castro scores.4–1
4Alex Bregman homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
3Alex Kirilloff out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chas McCormick. Jose Miranda scores.2–0
3Carlos Correa doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Willi Castro scores. Jose Miranda to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
