Twins at Astros
Last play · Willi Castro called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros100%
MIN 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 5 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 1) — +17% Astros
8Carlos Correa singles on a fly ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Edouard Julien scores. Max Kepler to 3rd.2–5
7Jose Miranda singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Manuel Margot scores.1–5
5Yordan Alvarez homers (11) on a line drive to right center field.0–5
3Kyle Tucker homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field.0–4
2José Abreu homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.0–3
1Yordan Alvarez homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Tucker scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
