Cardinals at Astros
Last play · Alec Burleson flies out to right fielder Chas McCormick in foul territory.
Win probability
Astros100%
STL 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 2 HOU
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -150
Astros favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — +35% Astros
8Jose Altuve hits a ground-rule double (12) on a fly ball to right field. Chas McCormick scores.4–7
8Yainer Diaz homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Meyers scores.4–6
8Alex Bregman homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.4–4
6Jake Meyers singles on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn. Yordan Alvarez scores.4–3
5Nolan Gorman homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
3Yordan Alvarez homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Mauricio Dubón scores.3–2
3Nolan Arenado singles on a line drive to left fielder Chas McCormick. Paul Goldschmidt scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd. Nolan Arenado to 2nd.3–0
1Nolan Gorman homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














