Cardinals at Astros
Last play · Iván Herrera strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
STL 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 7 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -145
Astros favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jeremy Peña scores. (inning 3) — +14% Astros
7Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dylan Carlson. Jake Meyers scores. Jeremy Peña to 2nd.5–8
7Nolan Gorman homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.5–7
6Masyn Winn homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Iván Herrera scores.4–7
4Jeremy Peña out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Alec Burleson. Alex Bregman scores.2–7
4Michael Siani grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman José Abreu. Iván Herrera scores. Masyn Winn to 2nd.2–6
3Yainer Diaz homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jeremy Peña scores.1–6
3Jeremy Peña doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Alec Burleson. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.1–3
1Jake Meyers grounds out, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt to pitcher Andre Pallante. Alex Bregman scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














