Orioles at Astros
Last play · Jordan Westburg strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
BAL 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 4 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
Astros favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Chas McCormick scores. (inning 3) — +23% Astros
8Chas McCormick homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–5
5Chas McCormick homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.1–4
3Yordan Alvarez homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Chas McCormick scores.1–3
2Mauricio Dubón out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Yainer Diaz scores.1–1
2Jordan Westburg homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














