Rangers at Astros
Last play · Trey Cabbage grounds out, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to pitcher Kirby Yates.
Win probability
Astros0%
TEX 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 HOU
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Smith homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Corey Seager scores. (inning 1) — -22% Rangers
9Joey Loperfido grounds out, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe to pitcher Kirby Yates. Jon Singleton scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd.4–2
8Josh Smith homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Corey Seager scores.4–1
3Jake Meyers homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
1Josh Smith homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Corey Seager scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














