Rangers at Astros
Last play · Yainer Diaz strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
TEX 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 1 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Josh Smith scores. (inning 10) — -26% Rangers
10Nathaniel Lowe singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Joey Loperfido. Josh Smith scores.2–1
1Yainer Diaz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Alex Bregman scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.1–1
1Marcus Semien homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














