Marlins at Astros
Last play · Emmanuel Rivera strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
MIA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 1 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+190 / -230
Astros favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alex Bregman homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Chas McCormick scores. (inning 7) — +31% Astros
8Bryan De La Cruz singles on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.3–4
7Alex Bregman homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Chas McCormick scores.2–4
7Jesús Sánchez homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
5Alex Bregman singles on a line drive to left fielder Nick Gordon. Chas McCormick scores.1–2
2Chas McCormick singles on a line drive to left fielder Nick Gordon. Jake Meyers scores. Mauricio Dubón to 2nd.1–1
1Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














