Pirates at Astros
Last play · Jose Altuve called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros0%
PIT 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 3 – 1 HOU
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+200 / -240
Astros favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jared Triolo grounds into a double play, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Jon Singleton. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Connor Joe out at 2nd. Jared Triolo out at 1st. (inning 2) — -15% Pirates
8Andrew McCutchen walks. Joey Bart scores. Ji Hwan Bae to 3rd. Michael A. Taylor to 2nd.6–2
6Jeremy Peña grounds into a force out, third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes to second baseman Jared Triolo. Yordan Alvarez scores. Yainer Diaz out at 2nd. Jeremy Peña to 1st.5–2
6Michael A. Taylor homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Jared Triolo scores.5–1
4Yainer Diaz homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
4Jared Triolo doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. Connor Joe scores.3–0
4Connor Joe singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Hunter Brown. Joey Bart scores. Connor Joe to 3rd. Throwing error by pitcher Hunter Brown.2–0
2Jared Triolo grounds into a double play, shortstop Jeremy Peña to second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Jon Singleton. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Connor Joe out at 2nd. Jared Triolo out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
