Pirates at Astros
Last play · Yainer Diaz pops out to shortstop Oneil Cruz.
Win probability
Astros0%
PIT 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+180 / -215
Astros favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael A. Taylor homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Jared Triolo scores. (inning 9) — -47% Pirates
9Yordan Alvarez walks. Victor Caratini scores. Trey Cabbage to 3rd. Jose Altuve to 2nd.5–3
9Michael A. Taylor homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Jared Triolo scores.5–2
8Oneil Cruz doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Trey Cabbage. Jared Triolo scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd.2–2
6Yasmani Grandal homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
5Jose Altuve reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes. Jon Singleton scores. Jake Meyers scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














