Rays at Astros
Last play · Yainer Diaz grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Yandy Díaz.
Win probability
Astros0%
TB 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 1 HOU
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Astros favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Lowe homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 5) — -31% Rays
9Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Pedro León. Jonny DeLuca scores. Yandy Díaz scores.6–1
7Josh Lowe homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
7Yandy Díaz homers (10) on a line drive to right field.3–1
5Josh Lowe homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Brandon Lowe scores.2–1
2Jon Singleton homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
