Royals at Astros
Last play · Jose Altuve doubles (24) on a fly ball to left fielder MJ Melendez. Jake Meyers scores.
Win probability
Astros100%
KC 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 1 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Paul DeJong homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 9) — -44% Royals
9Jose Altuve doubles (24) on a fly ball to left fielder MJ Melendez. Jake Meyers scores.2–3
9Paul DeJong homers (24) on a fly ball to left center field. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.2–2
8Jeremy Peña out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Yainer Diaz scores.0–2
3Ben Gamel homers (1) on a line drive to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
