Royals at Astros
Last play · MJ Melendez flies out to left fielder Mauricio Dubón.
Win probability
Astros100%
KC 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
Astros favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Isbel doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Ben Gamel. Paul DeJong scores. MJ Melendez scores. Maikel Garcia scores. (inning 7) — -55% Royals
8Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to left fielder MJ Melendez. Ben Gamel scores. Jeremy Peña scores. Zach Dezenzo to 3rd. Mauricio Dubón to 2nd. Mauricio Dubón advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by left fielder MJ Melendez.3–6
8Zach Dezenzo walks. Yainer Diaz scores. Ben Gamel to 3rd. Jeremy Peña to 2nd.3–4
8Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to pitcher Lucas Erceg. Jose Altuve scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd. Yainer Diaz to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Lucas Erceg.3–3
7Kyle Isbel doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Ben Gamel. Paul DeJong scores. MJ Melendez scores. Maikel Garcia scores.3–2
5Jason Heyward doubles (11) on a ground ball to right fielder Garrett Hampson. Jeremy Peña scores. Jon Singleton scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
