Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Yainer Diaz homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.
Win probability
Astros100%
BOS 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 2 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to left fielder Rob Refsnyder. Chas McCormick scores. (inning 8) — +32% Astros
9Yainer Diaz homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.4–5
8Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to left fielder Rob Refsnyder. Chas McCormick scores.4–4
6Jon Singleton out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarren Duran. Jeremy Peña scores.4–3
6Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Masataka Yoshida homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Romy Gonzalez scores.4–2
4Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Yainer Diaz scores. Jeremy Peña scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd. Throwing error by catcher Danny Jansen.2–2
1Danny Jansen reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Shay Whitcomb. Rafael Devers scores. Romy Gonzalez to 3rd.2–0
1Jarren Duran homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
