Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Victor Caratini flies out to right fielder Tyler O'Neill.
Win probability
Astros0%
BOS 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 5 – 5 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 40.6% · hold 7.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 8) — -26% Red Sox
8Jarren Duran homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.6–5
5Yainer Diaz homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.5–5
4Triston Casas singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Jarren Duran scores.5–4
4Jarren Duran singles on a fly ball to left fielder Mauricio Dubón. David Hamilton scores. Jarren Duran to 2nd.4–4
2Chas McCormick out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarren Duran. Jake Meyers scores.3–4
1Jon Singleton homers (11) on a line drive to right center field. Yordan Alvarez scores.3–3
1Jeremy Peña out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarren Duran. Jose Altuve scores.3–1
1Triston Casas homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Wilyer Abreu scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
