Padres at Royals
Last play · Nelson Velázquez flies out sharply to left fielder José Azocar.
Win probability
Royals0%
SD 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 0 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Royals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Cronenworth singles on a ground ball to right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Luis Arraez scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jurickson Profar to 3rd. (inning 8) — -52% Padres
9Freddy Fermin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd.11–8
9Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Kyle Isbel scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd.11–6
9Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Garrett Hampson scores. Kyle Isbel to 2nd.11–5
9Nelson Velázquez homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.11–4
8Jake Cronenworth doubles (13) on a ground ball to left fielder MJ Melendez. Luis Arraez scores. José Azocar to 3rd.11–3
8Jurickson Profar singles on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Ha-Seong Kim scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.10–3
8Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder MJ Melendez. Donovan Solano scores. Jackson Merrill scores. Ha-Seong Kim to 2nd.9–3
8Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Manny Machado scores. Donovan Solano to 2nd.7–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
