Padres at Royals
Last play · Nick Loftin out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Nelson Velázquez scores.
Win probability
Royals100%
SD 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 1 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Royals favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nelson Velázquez triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Dairon Blanco scores. (inning 9) — +49% Royals
9Nick Loftin out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Nelson Velázquez scores.3–4
9Nelson Velázquez triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Dairon Blanco scores.3–3
8Manny Machado singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Adam Frazier. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.3–1
8Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a ground ball to center fielder Garrett Hampson. Tyler Wade scores.2–1
5Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Adam Frazier. José Azocar scores. Luis Arraez out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Adam Frazier to catcher Freddy Fermin to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.1–1
4Vinnie Pasquantino out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Maikel Garcia scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
