Mets at Marlins
Last play · Harrison Bader flies out to left fielder Nick Gordon.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Fortes homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Nick Gordon scores. Vidal Bruján scores. (inning 2) — +21% Marlins
8Jake Burger singles on a ground ball to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Josh Bell out at 3rd, shortstop Francisco Lindor to first baseman Pete Alonso to second baseman Jeff McNeil.0–8
8Josh Bell grounds into a force out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Nick Fortes scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd. Bryan De La Cruz out at 2nd. Josh Bell to 1st.0–7
6Bryan De La Cruz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Harrison Bader. Nick Fortes scores.0–6
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. grounds out to second baseman Jeff McNeil.0–5
2Nick Fortes homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Nick Gordon scores. Vidal Bruján scores.0–4
2Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Harrison Bader. Jesús Sánchez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
