Mets at Marlins
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
NYM 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 2 MIA
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-140 / +120
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyrone Taylor doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. Francisco Lindor scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. DJ Stewart to 3rd. (inning 1) — -22% Mets
9Brett Baty singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dane Myers. Starling Marte scores. Tyrone Taylor to 3rd.7–3
9Brandon Nimmo homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Francisco Lindor scores.6–3
7Christian Bethancourt homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.4–3
2Dane Myers homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Emmanuel Rivera scores.4–2
1Harrison Bader singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. DJ Stewart scores. Tyrone Taylor scores. Brett Baty to 2nd.4–0
1Tyrone Taylor doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. Francisco Lindor scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. DJ Stewart to 3rd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
