Red Sox at Marlins
Last play · Nick Fortes flies out to right fielder Tyler O'Neill.
Win probability
Marlins0%
BOS 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 1 MIA
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Marlins favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to second baseman Vidal Bruján, deflected by pitcher Trevor Rogers. Tyler O'Neill scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Romy Gonzalez to 2nd. (inning 3) — -14% Red Sox
9Emmanuel Rivera out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jarren Duran. Xavier Edwards scores.7–2
9Ceddanne Rafaela doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Rafael Devers scores. Masataka Yoshida scores. Dominic Smith scores.7–1
9Rafael Devers triples (4) on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Tyler O'Neill scores.4–1
7Masataka Yoshida grounds out, third baseman Emmanuel Rivera to first baseman Jake Burger. Rafael Devers scores. Connor Wong to 3rd. Romy Gonzalez to 2nd.3–1
3Masataka Yoshida singles on a ground ball to second baseman Vidal Bruján, deflected by pitcher Trevor Rogers. Tyler O'Neill scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Romy Gonzalez to 2nd.2–1
3Rafael Devers singles on a ground ball to shortstop Xavier Edwards. Rob Refsnyder scores. Tyler O'Neill to 3rd.1–1
1Jesús Sánchez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Bryan De La Cruz to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














