Mets at Marlins
Last play · Brandon Nimmo strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Xavier Edwards scores. Vidal Bruján scores. (inning 4) — +38% Marlins
7Jake Burger homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
5J.D. Martinez singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Harrison Bader scores. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.2–3
4Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Xavier Edwards scores. Vidal Bruján scores.1–3
4Luis Torrens out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Pete Alonso scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














