Mets at Marlins
Last play · Jazz Chisholm Jr. pops out to shortstop Francisco Lindor.
Win probability
Marlins0%
NYM 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 0 MIA
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-165 / +140
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Alvarez grounds into a force out, shortstop Xavier Edwards to second baseman Otto Lopez. Pete Alonso scores. Mark Vientos to 3rd. DJ Stewart out at 2nd. Francisco Alvarez to 1st. (inning 4) — -14% Mets
4Francisco Alvarez grounds into a force out, shortstop Xavier Edwards to second baseman Otto Lopez. Pete Alonso scores. Mark Vientos to 3rd. DJ Stewart out at 2nd. Francisco Alvarez to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














