Mets at Marlins
Last play · Pete Alonso pops out to second baseman Otto Lopez.
Win probability
Marlins100%
NYM 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 2 – 5 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Marlins favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeff McNeil homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose Iglesias scores. (inning 6) — -22% Mets
8Nick Fortes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Otto Lopez scores. Emmanuel Rivera to 2nd.4–6
6Jeff McNeil homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose Iglesias scores.4–5
5Jake Burger homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.2–5
5J.D. Martinez out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Francisco Lindor scores.2–4
5Jeff McNeil homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
3Josh Bell singles on a line drive to center fielder Harrison Bader. Jake Burger scores.0–4
3Jake Burger doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.0–3
2Emmanuel Rivera out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jesús Sánchez scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














