Orioles at Marlins
Last play · Ramón Urías grounds out, second baseman Otto Lopez to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Marlins100%
BAL 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
Marlins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jesús Sánchez homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +20% Marlins
3Nick Gordon grounds out to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Jesús Sánchez scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.3–6
3Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Josh Bell scores. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.3–5
3Colton Cowser singles on a ground ball to first baseman Josh Bell. Anthony Santander scores.3–4
3Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Adley Rutschman scores. Anthony Santander to 2nd.2–4
2Jazz Chisholm Jr. doubles (13) on a ground ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Xavier Edwards scores. Nick Gordon scores.1–4
2Nick Gordon singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Otto Lopez scores. Xavier Edwards to 2nd.1–2
2Jesús Sánchez homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
1Jordan Westburg singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Nick Gordon. Adley Rutschman scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.














