Padres at Marlins
Last play · Jhonny Pereda grounds out, first baseman Jake Cronenworth to pitcher Tanner Scott.
Win probability
Marlins0%
SD 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Marlins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 9) — -41% Padres
10Jackson Merrill singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Manny Machado scores.6–2
10Manny Machado doubles (22) on a line drive to center fielder Cristian Pache. Luis Arraez scores. Jake Cronenworth scores.5–2
10Jake Cronenworth reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Xavier Edwards. Tyler Wade scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.3–2
9Jackson Merrill homers (16) on a fly ball to center field.2–2
8Manny Machado doubles (21) on a line drive to center fielder Cristian Pache. Jurickson Profar scores.1–2
4Jonah Bride homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
4Jake Burger homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
