Reds at Marlins
Last play · Jeimer Candelario grounds out, second baseman Otto Lopez to first baseman Jonah Bride.
Win probability
Marlins100%
CIN 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 6 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Marlins favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Derek Hill hits a grand slam (4) to center field. Jonah Bride scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Otto Lopez scores. (inning 1) — +18% Marlins
7TJ Friedl hits a grand slam (6) to right center field. Jake Fraley scores. Santiago Espinal scores. Tyler Stephenson scores.4–6
5Jake Burger homers (19) on a fly ball to left field.0–6
1Derek Hill hits a grand slam (4) to center field. Jonah Bride scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Otto Lopez scores.0–5
1Jake Burger homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
