Padres at Marlins
Last play · Luis Campusano strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
SD 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 5 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-200 / +165
Marlins favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Donovan Solano homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 8) — -16% Padres
8Donovan Solano homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Arraez scores.6–7
7Jesús Sánchez homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Burger scores.4–7
7David Peralta doubles (7) on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Jackson Merrill scores.4–5
6Jake Cronenworth grounds out, pitcher Max Meyer to first baseman Jonah Bride. Luis Arraez scores.3–5
6Jurickson Profar grounds out, second baseman Otto Lopez to first baseman Jonah Bride. Luis Campusano scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.2–5
5David Peralta grounds out, first baseman Jonah Bride to pitcher Max Meyer. Xander Bogaerts scores.1–5
2Jake Burger homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. Xavier Edwards scores.0–5
2Xavier Edwards reaches on a missed catch error by first baseman Luis Arraez, assist to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim. Derek Hill scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
